Mosul, nearly done

.

 

Thanks to @SamOnTheRoad for use of June 29 pic of Nadia Aziz Mohammed, as she waits for recovery of 11 family members killed in airstrike: photo by Sam Kimball / image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

Mosul’s capture sees ISIS vanquished – but at a terrible cost: Samuel Oakford, Airwars,  July 2017 

Additional reporting by Latif Habib, Alex Hopkins and Eline Westra 

Mosul is almost completely back in the hands of Iraqi government forces, after one of the most brutal city assaults witnessed in decades. While there has so far been no formal declaration of an end to the assault, Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has already said that "We are seeing the end of the fake Daesh state, the liberation of Mosul proves that.”

Yet even as Iraqis celebrate the routing of the terror group ISIS (so-called Islamic State) from their nation’s second city, the scale of death and destruction visited upon Mosul is becoming clearer. 

Thousands of Moslawis have credibly been reported killed since October 2016, with West Mosul in particular devastated. The Coalition alone says it fired 29,000 munitions into the city during the assault. Five times more civilians were reported killed in west Mosul versus the east of the city, Airwars tracking suggests – an indication of the ferocity of recent fighting. 

Doctors working with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) near the last frontlines report that they have still been receiving mass civilian casualties – up to half of whom are children.

“They come with shrapnel wounds, bleeding even from their eyes, shot in the head, after being buried under the rubble, traumatized by the air strikes, the artillery, the snipers, the bombs, having lost their whole family – and too, often, dying on arrival,” said Iolanda Jaquernet, a spokeswoman for the ICRC. “They have survived with very little food or water, without any access to healthcare, in hiding, and often indeed unable to reach a health facility until it was too late.”

“We have no overall figures, but certainly our colleagues from the mobile surgery team at the hospital have seen a tremendous increase in civilian casualties over the past weeks,” she added.

According to city officials, as much as 80 Percent of West Mosul has been completely destroyed. Civilians still emerging from the battlefield are often bloodied and starving – traumatised by Iraqi and Coalition bombardments; and by atrocities commited by ISIS.

According to reporters accompanying Iraqi forces, the stench of death is everywhere in the Old City – with civil defence officials reporting that as many as 4,000 bodies still remain unrecovered in the rubble. It is likely to be many months before the full death toll is known.

Three months longer than battle for Stalingrad

Operations to retake Iraq’s second largest city from ISIS began on October 17th 2016, and effectively lasted for 256 days – three months longer than the epic Battle of Stalingrad in World War Two.

An estimated 100,000 Iraqi security personnel, 40,000 Kurdish fighters and about 16,000 pro-government fighters took part in the battle. Military casualties have been high. Although the government refuses to release official figures, thousands of Iraqi forces have been credibly reported killed or injured.

The Coalition is declining to estimate how many ISIS fighters were killed in the battle for Mosul. Instead an official told Airwars: “Through our operations, the Coalition has degraded ISIS fighters on the front lines, but also their command and control apparatus, leaders, industrial base, financial system, communication networks, and the system that they use to bring foreign fighters in to fill their ranks in both Iraq and Syria.”

But the civilian toll too has been high. Over the course of the Mosul assault, Airwars tracked over 7,200 alleged civilian fatality allegations in the vicinity of Mosul which were blamed on the US-led Coalition. Most of these incidents remain difficult to vet, and in the majority of cases several actors in addition to the Coalition are blamed – including ISIS and Iraqi security forces.

Even so, Airwars researchers presently estimate that between 900 and 1,200 civilians were likely killed by Coalition air and artillery strikes over the course of the eight month campaign. Many hundreds or even thousands more may have died in Coalition actions – though it may be impossible in many cases ever properly to attribute responsibility. Coalition airstrikes on the city were carried out by the United States, Britain, France, Belgium and Australia – while both the US and France also conducted heavy artillery strikes in support of Iraqi forces. French forces alone have reported over 1,160 artillery actions.

In one tragic incident confirmed by the US, up to 12 civilians were killed or wounded after one of its airstrikes hit a school in Faisaliyah neighborhood in West Mosul on January 13th. In its March civilian casualty report the Coalition conceded that  “during a strike on ISIS fighters in a house it was assessed that eight civilians were unintentionally killed. During post-strike video analysis civilians were identified near the house who were not evident prior to the strike.”

Airwars was able to speak with a witness, Qusay Saad Abdulrazaq, who lost his two young children in the attack. The father said in a letter that the Coalition strike had hit the Al Marafa private school at 9am that day. His children, Abdulrahman and Aesha, did not survive. When Airwars spoke with Mr Abdulrazaq two months after the incident, he had finally been able to bury the recovered body parts of his children.

Victory declared

Victory was effectively declared by Iraqi forces on June 29th after they captured what remained of the once-treasured al Nouri Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had declared the terror group’s ‘caliphate’ in a 2014 speech. On June 23rd Iraqi and Coalition officials accused the group of rigging the structure with explosives and blowing it up as fighting closed in. By most accounts only a few Mosul city blocks now remain under ISIS control, though fears remain of terrorist sleeper cells in liberated neighbourhoods.

In addition to copious and often indiscriminate fire from Iraqi forces and ISIS, the Coalition has launched over 1,000 airstrikes in Mosul since October 17th, in addition to artillery, helicopter, rocket and mortar fire. With high civilian casualties reported, Airwars joined with international NGOs during the battle to urge Iraqi and Coalition forces to end their use of heavy and indiscriminate weapons on the city.

Belkis Wille, Iraq researcher at Human Rights Watch, says the battle has wrought devastation on civilians, their homes and the city: “With the massive spike in airstrikes and indiscriminate ground-fired munitions by Iraqi and US forces, we have seen entire city blocks obliterated, and hundreds of civilians wounded and killed in the crossfire,” she told Airwars. “ISIS has used the civilians still under its control as human shields and carried out numerous abuses including chemical weapons attacks and executions of those trying to flee.”

The deadliest incident so far admitted to by the Coalition took place on March 17th, when US planes bombed a building in the city’s al-Jadida neighborhood. The structure collapsed, leaving at least 105 civilians dead according to military investigators – though locals claimed the true toll was far higher. The Coalition also claimed the structure had been rigged with explosives by ISIS, though the city’s civil defence officials deny this. The al Jadida incident was ranked “contested” by Airwars until the Coalition admitted to it months later – suggesting that many more civilian deaths may yet be ascribed to international forces.

ISIS’s remaining strongholds in Iraq, including Hawijah, are likely to be the next target of Iraqi and Coalition actions. But for the people of Mosul many troubles remain. Almost 700,000 Moslawis are still displaced by the fighting according to the UN office for the Coordination of Human Affairs. Even after liberation, some Mosul residents are still being forced to leave. On June 30th, the UN’s human rights office reported that it was alarmed by a “rise in threats, specifically of forced evictions, against those suspected of being ISIL members or whose relatives are alleged to be involved with ISIL.”

It will likely be a long time before many can return. The physical destruction in Mosul – and most of all in the more densely packed western side – is still being assessed. But footage of neighborhoods, including those around the Old City, show a catastrophic level of damage that will take years to reconstruct. According to Iraqi officials, the cost of physical reconstruction is likely to be tens of billions of dollars. 

2) Coalition alone says it dropped 29,000 munitions on Mosul. Up to 80% of parts of city devastated. Rebuilding will cost $ tens of billion: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017
   
3)Thousands have died, with up to 7,200 deaths alleged at Mosul from Coalition actions - though attributing blame remains challenging: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017
 

4) Our present estimate is 900 to 1,200 civilians died in Coalition strikes on Mosul between Oct 2016 and June 2017 - tho likely # higher: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

5) @ICRC and intl NGOs report terrible trauma, injuries among survivors. 700,000 people remain displaced from Mosul, their futures uncertain: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

6) An estimated 150,000 Iraqi, peshmerga and PMU forces took part in the battle - and while officials are cagey, 1000s of casualties likely: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

 

7) ISIL's use of civilians as human shields an outrage. Many were gunned down as they tried to escape. More horror stories likely to emerge.: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

Two Emergency Response Division IRAM launchers in Badoush, May 2017: image via Human Rights Watch, 8 June 2017

8) Use of high explosives, indiscriminate weapons on cities - which US and allies now practice daily - must stop: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

8 months ago, the toughest urban warfare battle since WW2 began. Today, most of northern #Iraq and #Mosul are free.: image via Haidar Sumeri @IraqiSecurity, 29 June 2017



8 months ago, the toughest urban warfare battle since WW2 began. Today, most of northern #Iraq and #Mosul are free.: image via Haidar Sumeri @IraqiSecurity, 29 June 2017



8 months ago, the toughest urban warfare battle since WW2 began. Today, most of northern #Iraq and #Mosul are free.: image via Haidar Sumeri @IraqiSecurity, 29 June 2017



8 months ago, the toughest urban warfare battle since WW2 began. Today, most of northern #Iraq and #Mosul are free.: image via Haidar Sumeri @IraqiSecurity, 29 June 2017


 #Iraq #Mosul, nearly done. A map provided by the #Iraq-i Joint Operation Command: image via Ahmad Mousa @AhmadMousaQ, 1 July 2017

#USA A young boy plugs his ears as planes land at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington. @JimWatson_AFP #AFP: image via Frédérique Geffard @fgeffardAFP, 1 July 2017

 

GAZA CITY - Palestinian youths smoke waterpipe (narjileh or shisha) by the beach at sunset. Photo @mohmdabed #AFP: image via Frédérique Geffard @fgeffardAFP, 1 July 2017 

WEST BANK - A silhouette of a man is seen in the doorway of the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem. Photo @TomCoex #AFP: image via Frédérique Geffard @fgeffardAFP, 1 July 2017 

#Iraq Members of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service rest while advancing towards the Grand Mosque of Nuri in Mosul. Photo Ahmad Al-Rubaye #AFP: image via Frédérique Geffard @fgeffardAFP, 1 July 2017

 
#Iraq Mosul victory in 'days' as pressure on IS mounts #AFP Photo Ahmad Al-Rubaye: image via Aurelia BAILLY @AureliaBAILLY, 30 June 2017

#Iraq View of the destroyed Al-Nuri Mosque in the Old City of Mosul, during #MosulOffensive Photo Ahmad Al-Rubaye #AFP: image via Frédérique Geffard @fgeffardAFP, 1 July 2017

An aerial view of the destroyed Al Nuri Grand Mosque in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq: photo by Felipe Dana/AP, 29 June 2017



An aerial view of the destroyed Al Nuri Grand Mosque in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq: photo by Felipe Dana/AP, 29 June 2017

Iraqi soldiers called to survivors of an Islamic State suicide car bombing in Mosul in March.: photo by Ivor Prickett for The New York Times, 29 June 2017

 

 

Iraqi soldiers called to survivors of an Islamic State suicide car bombing in Mosul in March.: photo by Ivor Prickett for The New York Times, 29 June 2017   

Old City of Mosul, Iraq. A member of the Iraqi Federal Police runs for cover on the frontline in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq, June 28, 2017. Photo Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017

Old City of Mosul, Iraq. A member of the Iraqi Federal Police runs for cover on the frontline in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq, June 28, 2017. Photo Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017

Old City of Mosul, Iraq. A member of the Iraqi Federal Police runs for cover on the frontline in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq, June 28, 2017. Photo Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017

Pasukan Irak Usir Isis dari Mosul: image via Redaksi Indonesia, 29 June 2017

_96729019_mosul_reuters: image via nhien tran, 29 June 2017

Children playing in the street of the Aden neighborhood of East Mosul, Iraq, with patched-up bullet holes still visible in the houses. Photo @UNDP Iraq /Alex Potter: image via trust dot org, 6 May 2017

Children playing in the street of the Aden neighborhood of East Mosul, Iraq, with patched-up bullet holes still visible in the houses. Photo @UNDP Iraq /Alex Potter: image via trust dot org, 6 May 2017

Children playing in the street of the Aden neighborhood of East Mosul, Iraq, with patched-up bullet holes still visible in the houses. Photo @UNDP Iraq /Alex Potter: image via trust dot org, 6 May 2017

A burnt-out patient room at Ibn al Atheer Hospital in East Mosul, Iraq: image via trust dot org 26 April 2017

A burnt-out patient room at Ibn al Atheer Hospital in East Mosul, Iraq: image via trust dot org, 26 April 2017

A burnt-out patient room at Ibn al Atheer Hospital in East Mosul, Iraq: image via trust dot org, 26 April 2017

A view of the old, disused classrooms at the Gogjali School, before East Mosul was liberated.: image via trust dot org, 26 April 2017

A view of the old, disused classrooms at the Gogjali School, before East Mosul was liberated.: image via trust dot org, 26 April 2017

A view of the old, disused classrooms at the Gogjali School, before East Mosul was liberated.: image via trust dot org, 26 April 2017

 

[Untitled]: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

 

[Untitled]: image via Airwars @airwars, 1 July 2017

A shoe is seen amid a pile of unexploded ordnance at the positions of the Iraqi forces at the frontline in Old City of West Mosul, Iraq, June 27, 2017. Photo Erik de Castro/Reuters.: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017

A shoe is seen amid a pile of unexploded ordnance at the positions of the Iraqi forces at the frontline in Old City of West Mosul, Iraq, June 27, 2017. Photo Erik de Castro/Reuters.: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017

A shoe is seen amid a pile of unexploded ordnance at the positions of the Iraqi forces at the frontline in Old City of West Mosul, Iraq, June 27, 2017. Photo Erik de Castro/Reuters.: Image via euronews, 28 June 2017